SINGAPORE, 27 January 2025: Air travel data from travel intelligence leader ForwardKeys reveals a significant post-pandemic rebound in Chinese outbound travel for the upcoming Chinese New Year (CNY) vacation. 

The eight-day holiday from the 28 January to the 4 February has prompted a surge in departures, with peaks recorded on the 18 and 25 January as many travellers make their journeys before the festivities.

“The extended holiday CNY 2025, part of a government initiative to stimulate tourism and cultural exchange, is positively impacting travel patterns,” commented  ForwardKeys Market Analyst (China) Nancy Dai.

“We’re seeing a clear trend of travellers departing earlier than the official holiday starts to avoid the rush, with another peak expected on 30 January, most likely driven by those seeking short-haul getaways after spending the first days of the holiday at home or with family.”

Regional Travel Rebounds 

Chinese outbound travel to Asia during the holiday period is experiencing a remarkable recovery, nearing pre-pandemic levels. “Looking at the whole period from 13 January to 16 February, our flight tickets data reveals a +48% year-on-year increase in outbound travel from China to other Asian destinations, closing the gap with 2019 levels to just 8%,” reported Dai.

“Southeast Asian countries are proving popular,” she added, “ForwardKeys analysis highlights Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam as standout performers, with growth rates of +41%, +26%, and +8%, respectively — compared to their performance in 2019. Relaxed visa policies in these countries have undoubtedly contributed to their appeal. However, while Thailand and Indonesia show year-on-year growth, they remain slightly behind 2019 figures.”

“Japan has emerged as the top-performing destination in Asia. “The depreciation of the Yen has made Japan a desirable option for Chinese travellers, resulting in a staggering 104% increase compared to 2024 — and a 20% increase compared to 2019,” Dai explained. 

South Korea, while slightly behind 2019 levels, has seen a 13% increase compared to 2024, supported by a rise in flight capacity.

Russia, UAE, UK and Europe make gains

“While Chinese outbound travel to destinations outside Asia remains -15% below 2019 levels, it has seen a healthy +24% increase compared to 2024. “This demonstrates a strong recovery and increasing demand for international travel beyond Asia,” commented Dai.

Russia, in particular, has seen remarkable growth. “Outbound travel to Russia is +30% up on 2024 and an impressive +39% above pre-pandemic levels — partly due to the rising popularity of winter destinations, eased visa restrictions and increased flight capacity,” Dai explained. 

The UAE continues to be a popular visa-free destination, showing +9% year-over-year growth and +14% compared to 2019. European countries, including the UK, France, Italy, Spain, and Germany, have also experienced substantial growth, all performing +20% compared to 2024.

Increased seat capacity is a key driver of long-haul growth. “Destinations like Canada, Russia, Spain, the USA, and France have seen substantial increases in seat capacity — 165%, 65%, 55%, 42%, and 18% year-on-year, respectively — making them more accessible to Chinese travellers,” Dai highlighted.

For the full report, visit:

ForwardKeys Chinese New Year report 

(Source: ForwardKeys Actual Air Ticket Data)

SINGAPORE, 27 January 2025: UN Tourism’s latest tourist arrivals data for 2024 declares the recovery of tourism from the Covid pandemic, with 1.4 billion international tourist arrivals recorded globally.

In a media statement last week, UN Tourism said that 2024 marked the recovery of international tourism from the worst crisis in the sector’s history. It noted that most member destinations welcomed more international tourists in 2024 than pre-Covid pandemic levels, while visitor spending also continued to grow strongly.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili commented: “In 2024, global tourism completed its recovery from the pandemic and, in many places, tourist arrivals and especially earnings are already higher than in 2019. Growth is expected to continue throughout 2025, driven by strong demand contributing to the socio-economic development of both mature and emerging destinations.”

According to UN Tourism’s latest World Tourism Barometer, an estimated 1.4 billion tourists travelled internationally in 2024, indicating a virtual recovery (99%) of pre-pandemic levels. 

This represents an increase of 11% over 2023, or 140 million more international tourist arrivals, with results driven by strong post-pandemic demand, robust performance from large source markets and the ongoing recovery of destinations in Asia and the Pacific.

Middle East leads recovery

The Middle East, Europe and Africa saw the strongest results in 2024 compared with 2019 (pre-Covid pandemic).

The Middle East (95 million arrivals) remained the strongest-performing region when compared to 2019, with international arrivals 32% above pre-pandemic levels in 2024, though 1% higher compared to 2023.

Africa

Africa (74 million) welcomed 7% more arrivals than in 2019, and 12% more than in 2023.

Europe

Europe, the world’s largest destination region, saw 747 million international arrivals in 2024 (+1% above 2019 levels and 5% over 2023) supported by strong intraregional demand. 

All European subregions surpassed pre-pandemic levels, except for Central and Eastern Europe, where many destinations are still suffering from the lingering effects of the Russian aggression on Ukraine.

Americas

The Americas (213 million) recovered 97% of pre-pandemic arrivals (-3% over 2019), with the Caribbean and Central America already exceeding 2019 levels. Compared to 2023, the region saw 7% growth.

APAC

Asia and the Pacific (316 million) continued to experience a rapid recovery in 2024, though arrival numbers were still 87% of pre-pandemic levels, an improvement from 66% at the end of 2023. International arrivals grew 33% in 2024, an increase of 78 million from 2023.

Tourism Tracker

The full recovery of international tourism in 2024 is also reflected in the performance of other industry indicators. According to the UN Tourism Tracker, international air capacity and air traffic virtually recovered to pre-pandemic levels through October 2024 (IATA). 

Global occupancy rates for accommodation reached 66% in November, slightly below 69% in November 2023 (based on STR data).

Exports from tourism reached a record USD1.9 trillion in 2024. International tourism receipts saw robust growth in 2024 after reaching pre-pandemic levels in 2023 in real terms (adjusting for inflation and exchange rate fluctuations).
According to preliminary estimates, receipts reached USD1.6 trillion in 2024, about 3% more than in 2023 and 4% more than in 2019 (real terms).

As growth stabilises, average spending gradually returns to pre-pandemic values, from nearly USD1,400 per international arrival in 2020 and 2021 to an estimated USD1,100 in 2024. This is still above the average of USD1,000 before the pandemic.

Tourism export values

According to preliminary estimates, total exports from tourism (including passenger transport) reached a record USD1.9 trillion in 2024, about 3% higher than before the pandemic (real terms).

Several destinations reported outstanding growth in international tourism receipts during the first nine to 11 months of 2024. These include Kuwait (+232%), El Salvador (+206%), Saudi Arabia (+148%), Albania (+136%), Serbia (+98%), Republic of Moldova (+86%), and Canada (+70%), all in local currencies. These countries also enjoyed double-digit growth in receipts in 2024 compared to 2023.

Among the world’s top five tourism earners, the United Kingdom (+40%), Spain (+36%), France (+27%) and Italy (+23%) saw robust growth in the first nine to eleven months of 2024, compared to 2019.

Data on international tourism expenditure reflects the same trend, especially among large source markets such as Germany, the United Kingdom (both +36% compared to 2019), the United States (+34%), Italy (+25%) and France (+11%). Expenditure from India remained high in the first half of 2024 (+81% above 2019 levels), after extraordinary growth in 2023.

Positive outlook for 2025 

International tourist arrivals are expected to grow 3% to 5% in 2025 compared to 2024, assuming a continued recovery of Asia and the Pacific and solid growth in most other regions. This initial projection assumes global economic conditions remain favourable, inflation continues to recede, and geopolitical conflicts do not escalate.

The outlook reflects a stabilisation of growth rates after a strong rebound in international arrivals in 2023 (+33% vs 2022) and 2024 (+11% vs 2023).

Confidence and challenges

The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index confirms these positive expectations. Around 64% of the UN Tourism Panel of Experts see ‘better’ or ‘much better’ prospects for 2025 compared to 2024. Some 26% expect similar performance in their destination, while only 9% believe 2025 will be ‘worse’ or ‘much worse’ than last year.

However, economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant risks. Over half of respondents point to high transport and accommodation costs and other financial factors, such as volatile oil prices, as international tourism’s main challenges in 2025. Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to continue to seek value for money.

Geopolitical risks (excluding ongoing conflicts) are a growing concern among the Panel of Experts, which ranked them as the third leading factor after the economic ones. Extreme weather events and staff shortages are also critical challenges, ranking fourth and fifth among the factors identified by the Panel of Experts.

Balancing growth and sustainability will be critical in 2025, as reflected by two significant trends the Panel of Experts identified: the search for sustainable practices and the discovery of lesser-known destinations.