RIO DE JANEIRO, 9 June 2026: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its latest Financial Outlook for the Global Airline Industry, showing a halving of profitability as a result of war-related Middle East disruptions and high fuel prices.
The regional landscape, however, is highly differentiated.
At the geographic centre of the Middle East war, airlines in the region are expected to collectively fall into the red due to weak demand and operational disruptions. All other regions are expected to deliver profits, but at reduced levels from previous projections. Highlights include:
Airlines are expected to achieve a combined net profit of USD23.0 billion in 2026, roughly half of the previously projected USD41 billion. It is also roughly half the USD45 billion net profit estimate for 2025.
The net profit margin is expected to be 2% in 2026, roughly half the previously projected 3.9%. It is also less than half the 4.2% estimate for the 2025 net profit margin.
Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be USD4.50, half the USD9.10 achieved in 2025.
Operating profit in 2026 is expected to be USD48.0 billion (down from USD76.4 billion in 2025) for a net operating margin of 4.1% (down from 7.2% in 2025).
Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to be 4.3% (down from 6.6% in 2025). This is below the estimated weighted-average cost of capital of 8.5%. The gap highlights again the structural weakness of the airline industry, where profitability shocks quickly erode capital efficiency.
Total industry revenues are expected to reach USD1.165 trillion in 2026 (up 9.4% on the USD1.065 trillion in 2025).
The passenger load factor is forecast to continue to set record highs, with airlines expected to fill 84.0% of all seats over the year. That is an improvement on 83.5% in 2025.
Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.1 billion in 2026 (up 2.4% on 2025).
Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.7 million tonnes in 2026 (up 0.2% on 2025).
“War-related disruptions in the Middle East and rising fuel costs have shifted the outlook for airlines for the worse. Globally, airlines are expected to see profitability halve compared to 2025. Profits will shrink from $45 billion in 2025 to $23 billion this year. And margins will shrink from 4.2% to 2.0%. All airline bottom lines are suffering from the rapid 70% rise in jet fuel prices. Some of the additional costs are being recuperated by adjusting prices and improving efficiency, but it will not be sufficient to maintain profitability at the previous year’s level. Smaller carriers that started the year with weak balance sheets are certainly struggling. At the regional level, all are in the black but with sharply reduced financial performance, except in the Middle East. The Gulf carriers face operational uncertainty following a near-complete shutdown of airspace at the outbreak of the war. These carriers are doing an amazing job maintaining connectivity, but major financial impacts are unavoidable,” said IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh.
Even in the best of times, the airline industry as a whole suffers from low margins and returns below the cost of capital. The oil price shock has tested airlines’ financial resilience, with net margins squeezed to 2% globally.
Airlines are bearing the brunt of the fuel price shock. While air fares are rising, airlines are still absorbing part of the hike in their bottom lines. Net profit per passenger is expected to fall to $4.50, half of last year’s level. Under the circumstances, that shows resilience. But it won’t even buy you a hot dog at most of the FIFA World Cup venues, and it does not leave much of a buffer should other costs or taxes start rising,” said Walsh.
Outlook Drivers
Overall revenues are expected to grow by 9.4% to USD1.165 trillion. Revenue per available tonne-kilometre (ATK) is expected to grow by 8.8%. Outside of the extraordinary period of the COVID recovery, an increase of this magnitude occurred only recently, in 2008, when the jet fuel price rose by 40% year-on-year, and in 2010, following the 2009 global financial crisis and a subsequent jump in the price of jet fuel.
Despite significant improvements, revenue growth is expected to lag operating expense growth, with operating expenses of USD1.117 trillion, halving industry-wide net profitability to USD23.0 billion in 2026.
Major macroeconomic factors impacting airlines are expected to deteriorate in 2026, with GDP growth slowing to 2.5% (from 3.4% in 2025), inflation rising to 5.0% (from 4.1% in 2025), and world trade growth slowing to 1.9% (from 4.6% in 2025).
For the full report’s findings, check out Global Outlook for Air Transport Energy in Crisis.
