SINGAPORE, 2 March 2026: Global passenger demand in January 2026, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was up 3.8% compared to January 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association’s data for January 2026
Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), increased 3.5% year-on-year. The load factor was 82% (+0.2 ppt compared to January 2025), a record high for January.
International demand rose 5.9% compared to January 2025. Capacity was up 5.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.5% (+0.1 ppt compared to January 2025).
Domestic demand increased 0.1% compared to January 2025. Capacity was down -0.4% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.2% (+0.4 ppt compared to January 2025).
January demand was skewed by a shift in the Lunar New Year from January in 2025 to February in 2026. Lunar New Year typically drives a spike in demand, as families reconnect to celebrate the holiday. The year-on-year comparison makes January 2026 demand appear slightly weaker.
“The timing of the Lunar New Year partly explains the slightly slower 3.8% expansion in January, but the fundamentals are in place for demand to continue strong growth in 2026, said IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh.
“Schedule data indicate a 5.2% increase in global seat capacity by March, the fastest expansion since April 2024. Events over the weekend (28 February) have, however, introduced some uncertainty into the evolution of traffic and fuel costs. We all hope for an early, peaceful resolution to the current hostilities. In the meantime, it is critical that states respect their obligation to keep civilians, and civil aviation, free from harm”.
“Average fares are expected to fall in real terms over the course of 2026, continuing a long-established trend of ever more affordable air travel. This is despite persistent cost pressures from rising infrastructure charges, onerous regulatory burdens, and the mounting cost of the energy transition. In the face of these costs and regulatory pressures, it is notable that 2025 saw the slowest rate of new airline start-ups since 1999. Governments that value competition should consider this a canary in the coal mine. To protect and enhance the consumer benefits of connectivity, these cost and regulatory issues must be addressed,” Walsh concluded.
Regional Breakdown – International Passenger Markets
International RPK growth reached 5.9% in January year-on-year. All regions expanded, but year-on-year growth decelerated, particularly in the Asia Pacific, reflecting the Lunar New Year falling in February. The international load factor, at 82.5%, was a record high for the month.
Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 4.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 5.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 85.9% (-0.7 ppt compared to January 2025).
European carriers had a 6.3% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 5.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 79.4% (+0.5 ppt compared to January 2025).
North American carriers saw a 3.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 2.6% year-on-year, and the load factor was 82.3% (+0.6 ppt compared to January 2025).
Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 7.8% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.2% (-0.4 ppt compared to January 2025).
Latin American airlines saw a 11.4% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 8.9% year-on-year. The load factor was 86.5% (+2.0 ppt compared to January 2025).
African airlines saw an 11.7% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 10.1% year-on-year. The load factor was 77.4% (+1.1 ppt compared to January 2025).
(Source: IATA)
