BANGKOK, 30 January, 2026: Japan is rarely associated with uncertainty. For decades, it has represented stability, efficiency, and quiet confidence, traits that have underpinned its economy and its enduring appeal as a travel destination.
Yet as 2026 gets underway, attention has shifted from cherry blossoms and Shinkansen timetables to a less comfortable topic, Japan’s government bond market. Rising yields, a volatile yen, and investor unease are raising questions not only for financiers but for tourism across Asia, particularly the long-standing travel relationship between Japan and Thailand.
The market story, in plain English
Japan’s recent market turbulence stems from a gradual but significant shift in monetary conditions. After decades of ultra-low interest rates and heavy central bank intervention, government bond yields have begun to rise. This reflects concerns about public debt sustainability, inflation pressures, and the future direction of policy.
For travellers, the most visible effect is currency volatility A softer yen makes Japan more affordable for inbound visitors, from accommodation and dining to transport and shopping At the same time, it can make overseas travel more expensive for Japanese residents, subtly influencing outbound travel decisions As Mark Carney might say, ‘this is not a crisis, but it is a recalibration’.
What does this mean for tourism in Japan
Tourism and confidence are quietly linked. When domestic confidence weakens, Japanese travellers tend to become more selective rather than retreat altogether. Trips may be shorter, closer to home, or more value-focused.
Inbound tourism, however, often benefits. A weaker yen reinforces Japan’s appeal as a safe, clean, culturally rich destination offering excellent value. For Asian travellers in particular, Japan remains easy to access, well organised, and endlessly rewarding, even in times of economic uncertainty.
The Thailand connection
For Thailand, Japan’s financial adjustment matters most for outbound travel. A volatile or weak yen can dampen outbound travel from Japan, particularly in long-haul leisure and premium segments. Historically, Japanese visitors to Thailand have been high-value travellers, known for repeat visits and longer stays; therefore, any softening is closely monitored.
That said, experience suggests moderation rather than collapse. Japanese travellers adapt. When value, reliability, and emotional connection align, travel continues. Thailand continues to offer all three.
The global backdrop, the US and confidence
Japan’s domestic challenges are unfolding amid broader global uncertainty, particularly regarding the US Under the catastrophic influence of Trump, markets are again facing unpredictability, from tariff rhetoric and trade tensions to strained alliances What is striking this time is the growing crisis of confidence among Trump’s supporters, which increases the risk of erratic policy signals and sudden reversals The probable abandonment of his much-touted “beautiful ballroom”, stalled by court action over funding, alongside his conspicuous absence of support at Davos – respected World Leaders using the forum to consolidate their collective dislike of the man and rising discontent among his own base, points to a rapid erosion of confidence that may well thankfully mark the beginning of the end for Trump.
For Japan, deeply integrated into global trade and financial systems, this matters. Trade disruptions and capital-flow volatility can amplify bond-market stress and currency swings. In such environments, investor caution rises, and consumer confidence softens, with knock-on effects for discretionary spending, including travel.
Tourism in an age of uncertainty
When global confidence weakens, tourism patterns tend to shift rather than disappear. Business travel and long-haul discretionary trips are often the first to feel pressure. Leisure travel adapts, favouring destinations perceived as safe, efficient, welcoming, and politically neutral.
Japan fits this profile well for inbound tourism. Thailand does too. In an unsettled world, reassurance becomes a competitive advantage.
A personal reflection
Japan remains one of my favourite countries to visit. Food culture, environmental awareness, safety, and quiet sustainability are embedded in everyday life. Even when markets wobble, those fundamentals do not change.
For Asian travellers, particularly those from Thailand, practicality matters. Flights to Japan are frequent, schedules are reliable, and accommodation options are broad. Availability has rarely been a problem. That ease removes friction, and friction is often the silent killer of travel demand. The same can be said of Thailand.
The bottom line
Japan’s bond market volatility signals a transition, not a decline. Tourism will feel the effects at the margins, particularly in outbound travel. Still, core drivers remain intact. For Thailand, the implications are manageable and may even present an opportunity.
In a world marked by financial recalibration and geopolitical noise, destinations that offer stability, value, and genuine welcome tend to perform best. Japan remains compelling. Thailand remains well-positioned. Markets may fluctuate, but the desire to travel endures.
About the author
Andrew J Wood is a British-born travel writer, former hotelier, and tourism consultant who has lived in Thailand since 1991 With more than four decades of experience in international hospitality and tourism, he is a former Director of Skål International and a past President of Skål International Asia, Thailand, and Bangkok Andrew writes extensively on tourism trends, sustainability, aviation, and destination strategy across the Asia-Pacific region, contributing to travel and hospitality publications worldwide His work reflects a long-standing commitment to responsible tourism, cross-cultural understanding, and the evolving role of travel in a changing global economy.
