BANGKOK, 5 August 2025: It’s becoming increasingly clear that China is undergoing a form of economic metamorphosis — just take a closer look at the headlines. 

Official figures often gleam with optimism, but the reality on the ground is far more complex. From eerily quiet shopping malls to job-hunting graduates and declining property sales, the story behind the numbers tells of a country navigating a new, uncertain chapter.

For tourism-dependent nations like Thailand, China’s internal shifts matter deeply, particularly when China has long been its biggest inbound tourism market. So, what should we expect in the years ahead?

Quick insights

• China’s 5.2% places it in the upper-middle range — stronger than most developed nations but behind India.

• Thailand’s expected growth of around 3.1% is modest but improving, thanks mainly to resurgent tourism, particularly from China, Russia, and India.

• Indonesia continues to punch above its weight, rivalling China’s performance, driven by favourable demographics and infrastructure investment.

Chinese impact on Thai tourism

Short-Term Outlook (2025–2026): A Slower Comeback Than Hoped

Despite encouraging GDP growth, underlying issues — especially weak consumer confidence, falling property values, and high youth unemployment — are holding back Chinese outbound travel.

• Many Chinese middle-class households are still recovering from years of financial stress, particularly from the housing downturn.

• While China has eased travel restrictions and resumed outbound group tours, average spending per trip remains below pre-COVID levels. Travellers are more budget-conscious and selective.

• Thailand expects to welcome between 6.5 and 7 million Chinese visitors in 2025, significantly below the 11 million peak in 2019.

• At this pace, a full recovery of Chinese arrivals is unlikely before 2027 or 2028.

Mid-Term Outlook (2026–2027): Gradual Rebound, But Not Yet Peak

Should consumer sentiment in China improve, we can anticipate:

• Annual growth in Chinese arrivals of 10–15%, led by returning leisure travellers, families, and tech-savvy millennial FITs (Free Independent Travellers).

• Thailand’s visa-free entry policy, introduced in early 2024, will remain a key draw, especially when combined with affordable, family-friendly destinations like Phuket, Pattaya, Chiang Mai, and Hua Hin.

• However, large-scale group travel may stay muted unless airline capacity rebounds and confidence fully returns.

Long-Term Outlook (2027–2028): Stabilisation and Selective Growth

Assuming no major shocks in China:

• Thailand could realistically see a return to 10–11 million Chinese visitors annually by 2028, matching pre-pandemic levels.

• But the traveller profile will shift:

• Fewer low-budget package tourists

• More independent, digital-first travellers

• Higher demand for sustainable, curated, and ‘Instagrammable’ experiences

• While average spend per head may lag behind 2019 highs, premium operators offering immersive or wellness-focused experiences are likely to thrive.

• Destinations investing in Chinese-language services, mobile payment compatibility (e.g. WeChat Pay, Alipay), and personalised content will gain a competitive edge.

(Source: Andrew Wood)

About the author 
Andrew J Wood is a respected travel writer, hotelier, and tourism lecturer with over four decades of experience in Southeast Asia’s hospitality and tourism sectors. A former general manager of several leading hotels in Thailand and a regular speaker at international tourism forums, he is widely recognised for his insight into emerging travel trends and his passionate advocacy for Thailand as a world-class destination.