SINGAPORE 11 December 2025: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its latest financial outlook for the global airline industry, showing a stabilisation of profitability even as supply chain issues persist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Airlines are expected to achieve a combined net profit of USD41 billion in 2026 (up from USD39.5 billion in 2025). While this would set a new record, the net profit margin is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% from 2025. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Net profit per passenger transported is expected to be USD7.90 (below the 2023 high of USD8.50, and unchanged from 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Operating profit in 2026 is expected to be USD72.8 billion (up from USD67.0 billion in 2025), with a net operating margin of 6.9% (up from the 6.6% expected for 2025). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to be 6.8% (unchanged from 2025). Despite deleveraging and improved operating profitability, ROIC is expected to remain below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) estimated to be 8.2% in 2026. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Total industry revenues are expected to reach USD1.053 trillion in 2026 (up 4.5% on the USD1.008 trillion expected revenues in 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Load factors are forecast to remain at record highs, with airlines expected to fill 83.8% of all seats in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Passenger numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2026 (up 4.4% on 2025). <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6 million tonnes in 2026 (up 2.4% on 2025).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAirlines are expected to generate a 3.9% net margin and a USD41 billion profit in 2026. That\u2019s extremely welcome news, given the headwinds the industry faces \u2014 rising costs from bottlenecks in the aerospace supply chain, geopolitical conflict, sluggish global trade, and growing regulatory burdens, among others. Airlines have successfully built shock-absorbing resilience into their businesses that is delivering stable profitability,\u201d said IATA\u2019s Director General Willie Walsh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWhile strong performance of airlines in the face of a changing and challenging operating environment is impressive, the fact that the airline industry collectively does not generate earnings that cover its cost of capital remains an issue to be resolved. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cIndustry-level margins are still a pittance considering the value that airlines create by connecting people and economies. They stand at the core of a value chain that underpins nearly 4% of the global economy and supports 87 million jobs. Yet Apple will earn more selling an iPhone cover than airlines will earn transporting the average passenger. And even within the air transport value chain, airline margins are completely out of balance, particularly compared with those of engine and avionics manufacturers and many of our service suppliers. Imagine the additional power that airlines could bring to economies if we could re-balance value chain profitability, reduce regulatory and tax burdens, and alleviate infrastructure inefficiencies,\u201d said Walsh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Air cargo\u2019s performance is of particular interest, as it has defied many gloomy predictions and held its own amid rapidly changing trading conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe resilience in air cargo has been awe-inspiring. As trade flows adapt to a protectionist US tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade, buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments. Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the US found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and centre as the global economy adjusts to new realities,\u201d said Walsh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Travellers\u2019 Viewpoint<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Air travel continues to deliver exceptional value to consumers. Average real return air fares in 2025 US dollars were 34.7% lower than in 2015. Passengers are expected to benefit from efficiency gains and competitive forces, which will likely keep the 2026 average return air fares 36.8% below the 2015 level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n An IATA public opinion poll conducted in October-November 2025 (14 countries, 6,500 respondents who had taken at least one trip in the past year) found that 97% of travellers were satisfied with their most recent travel experience. Moreover, 88% agreed that air travel improves their lives, 78% rated it good value for money, and 87% said they care about their ability to fly in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n