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Forwardkeys tracks city links in Europe

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LONDON, 31 October 2019: European Cities are more connected by airlines to one and other and the wider world than they have ever been, according to a study for World Cities Day 31 October, undertaken by ForwardKeys, in partnership with European Cities Marketing.

For their inhabitants, that can be a mixed blessing. On the positive side, they are more convenient places to live, and their economies benefit from visitors who come and spend money in their shops, hotels and restaurants.

However, for a few, such as Amsterdam, Barcelona and Dubrovnik, managing the relentless growth in tourists is becoming a serious challenge, as residents are beginning to complain about rising prices and crowded streets, a scenario dubbed ‘overtourism’.

ForwardKeys reports that long-haul connectivity to European cities is growing strongly. Airlines appear confident, as seat capacity on flights from cities outside Europe, during the crucial third quarter of the year (July – September), grew by 6.2% compared to Q3 2018 and long-haul capacity for the fourth quarter (October to December) is 3.4% up on Q4 2018.

Connectivity between European cities is growing too; all be it slightly less rapidly than it did last year. Intra-European airline seat capacity during Q3 (July – September) grew by 3.9% compared to Q3 2018.

ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti said: “Analysing airline seat capacities is a very helpful indicator of the size of the market because airlines are always trying to fill their planes and they can come close to that objective by flexing the price of tickets from one moment to the next. They can also reallocate aircraft between routes, if necessary, to cope with extraordinary demand. Q3 is the most important quarter of the year for Europe, as it embraces the busy summer season, which accounts for 34% of annual arrivals.”

During that period, Europe’s top cities for long-haul capacity growth were Helsinki, up 21.4%, Warsaw, up 21.3%, Athens, up 17.7%, Lyon, up 15.9%, Tel Aviv, up 15.3%, Barcelona, up 14.9%, Istanbul, up 14.9%, Lisbon, up 14.4%, Madrid, up 13.5%, and Milan, up 10.7%.

For the last quarter of the year, Warsaw sees the greatest long-haul capacity growth, the same growth as in Q3, an increase of 21.3%. Following Warsaw is Lisbon, up 19.0%, Istanbul, up 17.0%, Helsinki, up 16.0%, Vienna, up 14.6%, Athens, up 13.6%, Barcelona, up 11.5%, Madrid, up 10.4%, Moscow, up 9.5% and Milan, up 7.6%.

This summer, Seville topped the rankings for intra-European capacity growth, up 16.5%, followed by Vienna, up 12.1%, Budapest, up 9.5%, Istanbul, up 8.5%, Valencia, up 8.0%, Dubrovnik, up 7.8%, Lisbon, up 6.8%, Prague, up 5.0%, Munich, up 4.1% and Florence, up 4.1%.

Looking ahead to the final quarter of the year, Dubrovnik is in the top spot, with airlines increasing intra-European capacity by 17.2% over Q4 2018. It is followed by Budapest, up 14.1%, Florence, up 13.4%, Prague, up 9.0%, Istanbul, up 8.6%, Seville, up 6.6%, Vienna, up 6.5%, Lisbon, up 6.2%, Milan, up 3.6% and Barcelona, up 2.3%.

Ponti commented: “Whilst cities like Dubrovnik, Florence, Helsinki, Seville and Warsaw are showing significant increases in capacity, they have done so from a relatively small base. The cities, which really stand out for increasing capacity from a larger base are Lisbon, Vienna and, most of all, Istanbul, which features in the top seven cities for long haul and intra-European capacity growth in both Q3 and Q4.

“In the case of Istanbul, one has to attribute much of the success to the completion of its new airport, to the strength of Turkish Airlines and to the rise of two low-cost carriers, Pegasus and Atlas Global, which are now the hub’s no.2 and no.3 airlines.”

Whilst high growth in visitor numbers is very good for the economy, creating jobs and earning foreign currency, it also has its challenges as city centres become increasingly crowded with tourists. Indeed, in some cities the locals have started to protest about ‘overtourism’, citing excessive crowds in the vicinity of major attractions, rowdy behaviour and rising property prices.

European Cities Marketing is a non-profit organisation improving the competitiveness and performance of leading cities of Europe by providing a platform for convention, leisure and city marketing professionals to exchange knowledge, best practice and widen their network to build new business. European Cities Marketing is promoting and linking the interests of members from more than 115 major cities in 39 countries.

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