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TAT rethinks those numbers

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UDON THANI, 3 July 2019: Thailand may have to settle for 40.2 million tourists this year down from an earlier forecast of 41.3 million. Last year it welcomed 38.27 million.

That’s the outlook according to the Tourism Authority of Thailand’s governor, Yuthasak Supasorn, who gave a media presentation during the annual marketing plan meeting 2020 here in Udon Thani on Monday.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise as the agency has repeatedly said it would stop counting heads at immigration checkpoints and concentrate on benchmarks that measure quality.

But after 60 years of promoting the country’s tourism old habits linger. Even when focusing more on revenue, the headcount remains an important calculation to arrive at average tourist spend.

Around 200 top TAT officials are hammering out their budgets and marketing plans this week that will hit the street running 1 October when the government’s fiscal year kicks in.

Warning the future might get tougher for Thailand’s tourism TAT is now saying total revenue this year will close with an estimated THB3.38 trillion representing a loss of THB20 billion on an earlier target. Of that total international arrivals should generate THB2.21 trillion up 9.5%.

TAT’s overseas offices also reported at the Udon Thani meeting the negative impact of a strong baht is having on markets particularly the EU, Australia and the UK. In one year the Euro has dropped from 38.60 to 34.62 baht, while the UK pound is down from 43.58 to 39.01 baht. The Australian dollar fell from 24.32 to 21.57 baht.

While there is optimism that Thai tourism will surge once more in 2020, the mood was cautious at the meeting. Tourist arrivals are forecast to grow to around 42 million next year.

In 2020, TAT forecasts tourism revenue will reach THB3.72 trillion from both domestic and international travel while international tourist revenue should reach THB2.43 trillion a rise of 10%.

The China market is soft and will remain so until the US-China trade war is resolved. But there are also safety concerns that are slowing travel from China. Last year, Thailand welcomed 10.5 million Chinese tourists.

TAT sings the song of quality but in essence, that is interpreted as a drive for high revenue visits as opposed to cheap holiday packages and the fallback position of promoting backpacker travel.

2020 is also the year TAT celebrates its 60th year and it could be a year when it is forced to revisit its long-established strategy of maintaining a chain of overseas offices and even increasing them despite the emergence of more cost-effective digital marketing and online networking.

The role of the overseas offices will come under the spotlight as TAT strengthens digital marketing and contact with online travel agencies worldwide. Sources at TAT also suggest a drastic overall of domestic offices is now overdue and even their role which is often a cause of debate internally could be on the table for review.

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