Aircraft manufacturers weave the same tale
February 5, 2010 by Rapeepat Mantanarat
Filed under News
Airbus forecasts airlines in Asia-Pacific will acquire some 8,000 new passenger and cargo aircraft over the next 20 years, valued at US$1.2 trillion, while an earlier Boeing forecast said the region would require as many as 8,960 aircraft of all types.
According to the Airbus evaluation, the requirement represents one third of predicted global deliveries between now and 2028, with the region driving demand for larger aircraft types.
Presented at the Singapore Airshow, Airbus chief operating officer, customers, John Leahy, stated passenger traffic in the region will grow at an average annual rate of 5.9%, while cargo traffic will increase by 6.3% per year.
As a result of this growth and continuous fleet replacement, the region is expected to take delivery of some 880 large aircraft, 2,570 twin aisle wide-bodies and 4,560 single aisle aircraft.
The high proportion of larger aircraft types reflects the concentration of populations around main urban centres in the region, generating high density traffic on key intra-regional routes, as well as to capacity constrained international destinations in Europe and North America. Meanwhile, demand for single aisle aircraft in the region is expected to accelerate in the coming years, driven by the growth of low cost carriers and opening of new routes between secondary destinations, especially in China, India and South East Asia.
There are 1,120 aircrafts on order from customers in Asia Pacific for future delivery. This represents 32% of the company’s backlog.
Globally, Airbus foresees demand for almost 25,000 new passengers and freighter aircrafts valued at US$3.1 trillion between 2009 and 2028 including 1,700 very large aircrafts, 6,250 twin aisle wide-bodies and almost 17,000 single aisle aircraft.
The Airbus and Boeing’ forecasts are very similar in their predictions. Released late last year, Boeing said airlines, worldwide, will need 29,000 new planes through 2028, valued at US$3.2 trillion while Asia-Pacific will need 8,960 aircraft.
It predicts the most significant growth in single aisle type — 19,460 aircrafts, accounting 67% of the total. Twin-aisles are second with 6,700 deliveries, followed by 2,100 regional jets and finally 740 large aircraft. Airbus has a higher prediction on larger aircraft, at 1,000, to reflect its sales of A380s.
Both forecasts are driven by a need to sell aircraft and should to be assessed in the wider context of economic and tourism and travel data from less biased sources. It also does not take into account pressure on the aviation industry to reduce pollution that could dampen travel demand and cut into long-term aircraft orders.
Despite aviation’s best efforts to reduce carbon emissions, they may not be adequate enough to meet reduced emission targets set for the next 20 years forcing the airlines to curtail expansion.
The pie in the sky talk from the two big plane makers is hogwash, because their calculations are based on what their masters have instructed them to spout to humour the shareholders. Of course Airbus says big planes are going to be in demand, because they bet the farm on their A380. Boeing talks about smaller ones, guess why? The reality is 20 years is the life of the average aircraft, unless you fly Thai, and many of the projected orders would be for replacements. With the world being told not to travel to save itself from warming and the failure of so many legacy and start-up airlines of late it is impossible to know where the demand will trend. But that doesn’t stop this lot from seeking headlines which they never have to account for. The Concorde trial has just begun, which reminds one of the projections for supersonic trial put out by all concerned when it first flew. That 14 only ever entered service speaks volumes. The other factor is the little known but relevant point that military aircraft are what keep these two in the sky, and that all depends on politics.