Over the moon about 2009 visits

Thailand’s Minister of Tourism and Sports is over the moon about official estimates that point to the country attracting 14.09 million tourists in 2009.

However, the private sector says data collection needs a revision and the ministry might be overstating the value of tourism in revenue terms.

Minister of Tourism and Sports, Chumpol Silapa-archa, is understandably chuffed over the 2009 recovery in tourist arrivals claiming 14.09 million visits now bodes well for his ambitious targets in 2010.

He was so elated he organised a celebration, 14 January, in the ‘Star 29’ function room at Plaza Athenee Hotel, Bangkok, one of the city’s top events venue.

He told VIPs invited to the event: “The objective is to thank everyone for their cooperation in helping us make a full recovery during a crisis year.”

He added that tourism receipts in 2009 were estimated at Bt527,326.75 million. As for the driving force behind such a remarkable recovery, Mr Chumphol said it originated in a promise  made last August.

“I gave my word to Prime Minister, Abhisit Vejjachewa, that we would find ways to reach 14 million arrivals and to ensure success I asked the government for additional financial support.”

The first hint of success came, 8 January, when the Ministry of Tourism and Sports estimated 2009 would close with 14,090,999 international arrivals. This is still a decline of 3.38% when compared with 14,584,220 reported in 2008.

However, the paper trail to success, has not fully trickled down to tour operators, hotels and other enterprises that rely on inbound tourism. Many have suggested recovery will not be really evident to later in 2010, possibly in the last quarter.

Are they mystified as to where the ministry found  tourists and revenue that the industry feared were lost to competitive destinations?

Veteran executives in the tourism game know there are many factors that impact on data, not the least being political agendas. Even if they accept the results, they might suggest a closer look at the source markets would show not all is as rosy in the tourism revenue department as stated.

For example, neighbouring Malaysia continues to deliver the highest arrivals at 1,737,311, of which overland board crossings make up a huge chunk.

Laos with 639,652 is also in the top 10 source markets. Overnight border crossings, possibly to neighbouring provinces are a big contributing factor.

Of more significance to mainstream tourism operators is the fact that Japan continues to be the second largest source market with 1,003,760 arrivals, followed by the UK at 840,198 arrivals. But again how many tourists from these two countries are in fact resident in Southeast Asia rather than Japan or the UK. Based on nationality the result is not accurate as many Hong Kong residents still hold UK passports.

Other nationalities in the top 10 chart are: China 775,709; Australia 646,027; USA 626,728; Korea 615,628; India 611,983; and Germany 573,742.

Mr Chumpol believes he can garner 16 million arrivals in 2010 if he is still holding the tourism and sports portfolio as the year progresses. He has ordered the TAT comply with this target, but privately TAT officials know 15 million to 15.5 million would already be considered a challenge.

He plans to ask the Cabinet to extend stimulus measures for another year. They include: Free visas, tourist insurance; reduction of aircraft landing and parking fees; 50% discount on national park fees; 200% tax exemption for organisations that holds seminars domestically and a reduction of hotel room tax. He also wants to boost medical and youth tourism.

In response to this high flying optimism, Association of Thai Travel Agents advisor and ex-president, Apichart Sankary, said he believed 2009 had closed with around 11 million arrivals.

He has asked the Ministry of Tourism and Sports to review its data collection methods, suggesting it is reporting on very minor checkpoints, where the definition of what constitutes an international tourist could be blurred. Also he suggests that the average receipt formula of Bt4,200 per day, per head and an average stay of nine nights needs to be reviewed.

“If they want to continue counting at all borders, even the small ones, they should recalculate the average length of stay and revenue, or the figure will be distorted. Overland visitors might not stay even a single night and their spending is much lower than other markets,” he said.

Previously, the private sector estimated international arrivals for 2009 would fall short of 14 million.

The Tourism Council of Thailand’s most recent estimate was 13.6 million, while the Thai Hotels Association and Association of Thai Travel Agents estimated 11.5 million. Even the Tourism Authority of Thailand noted the best-case scenario was 13.5 million.