Iata’s October shows slight improvement

International Air Transport Association reported passenger demand of international scheduled traffic in October was up 0.5% compared to October 2008. It points out that this is significantly better than the 5.4% decline recorded in September. Load factor continue at pre-recession levels of 78.%.

Iata said the improved trend emerged since passenger traffic hit bottom in March. It is similar to the pace of growth in 2006 and 2007. Without an exaggerated rebound from pent-up demand, there will be no rapid catch-up to the growth trend established in the 2005 to early- 2008 period.

The improvement in load factors to pre-recession levels is largely the result of careful capacity management. Compared to October 2008, overall passenger capacity was down 3.3%. Stripping out seasonal fluctuations, passenger capacity has been essentially flat throughout 2009.

Passenger fleet continues to expand by 1.8% as new deliveries more than offset those being stored or retired. Aircraft utilisation for both wide and narrow-body aircraft is now 6% below early 2008 levels. This low asset utilization is increasing operating costs.

Yields remain under severe pressure. Although there has been a modest rise in air fares since mid-year, it remains around 20% less expensive to fly in real terms today than it was a year ago.

Asia-Pacific carriers saw demand grow 0.9%, lower than the 2.1% recorded in September. While European carriers saw a demand decline of 3% in October, it is an improvement from the -4.2% in September. European carriers demand is still below the levels from last year due to weakness across the Atlantic and within Europe.

Very significant capacity cuts across both the Atlantic and Pacific have reduced traffic carried of North American carriers in October to -2.6% below 2008 levels.

Middle Eastern carriers saw demand grow 14.3%, compared to 18.2% in September, considered the highest among the regions. The region’s carriers continue to add capacity, increasing 15.3% in October and outpacing the growth in demand.

Latin American carriers saw demand for air travel growing 9% compared to 3.4% in September. African carriers saw the demand decline 2.6% in October, an improvement from September’s -4.2%.