Bank research paints dull picture
July 3, 2009 by TTRweekly Staff
Filed under News
Tourism is likely to slump throughout the year before the first signs of recovery kick in.
Inbound tourist arrivals are not going to recover this year although the second half of the year could post a slightly better performance, according to Kasikorn Research Centre.
KResearch released its market trends report, 2 July, stating the travel industry should expect around 12.53 million visits this year, a 14% decrease when compared with 14.54 million, recorded last year.
KResearch stated tourism revenue would stand at around Bt400,000 million, or a 23% decrease on 2008’s performance of Bt520,000 million.
It estimates the second half of 2009 will see the slowdown continue with 6 million arrivals, or a 10% decrease from 6.66 million tourist arrivals in the second half of last year, which slumped 11% when compared with 2007.
In the first half of this year, KResearch reported arrivals stood at around 6.53 million, or a 17% drop from 7.88 million arrivals in the same period in 2008.
KResearch believes the H1N1 influenza pandemic will continue to hurt tourism well into the third quarter, while global recession will have an impact on travel throughout the year.
Kasikorn Bank released its reports on a same day the Bank of Thailand reported a negative outlook for tourism based on political disturbances last April and H1N1 influenza that pushed arrivals down to 912,000 during May, a decrease of 22.2% when compared with the same month last year.
Arrivals through Suvarnabhumi Airport decreased 26.5%. Hotel occupancy stood at 39.9% on average, when compared with a 53.5% average in May 2008.
In 2008, Ministry of Tourism and Sports reported that the country gained 14.323 million arrivals.
During TAT’s marketing plan meeting, 29 June at the Queen Sirikit National Convention Centre, the Tourism Authority of Thailand estimated tourist arrivals would reach 13.25 million this year and reach 14 million in 2010 with Bt530,000 million revenue.
Private sector sources believe arrivals will not exceed 11 million if the current trend prevails.
